I thought Ambien would help me sleep. Instead I urinated all over my computer. I spoke with pirates. I rode my mattress like a flying carpet having an air race with my imaginary friends. Those are just a few of the things the sleep deprived have reported while on the popular sleep medication Ambien. In fact there are so many bizarre stories about Ambien use it is one of Reddit’s most popular online discussion boards.
As a macro investment shop our focus is on the big picture. We look for the themes that will shape markets and often history. We all know the Middle East is unstable, we all know the U.S. elections today are a disaster today regardless of who wins, we all know that we are consuming resources on Earth far too fast. What you may not know is that you are about to participate in a sport you didn’t choose to join. You are going to be hunted. Did you spill your espresso as you read that?
Welcome to the OECD’s Common Reporting Standard (CRS), a modern day witch hunt and the biggest assault on privacy that no one is talking about.
I’m compelled after receiving so many phone calls yesterday from clients and friends to write what I believe may be my most important post.
Markets globally plummeted yesterday. Some of you spoke to me Sunday night when I had cancelled social engagements to stay at home, make some popcorn, and watch the financial fireworks as Asian markets opened. When markets imploded in the U.S. Monday morning the first message I received was “You are f*cking psychic!” Ok well yes I am and I’ll talk about that in more depth in a moment because everyone is psychic they just don’t know how to use it.
If you haven’t seen the movie series the Hangover and in need of a good laugh I suggest renting any of them on Netflix right away. The series is essentially about some buddies that party way too hard during each other’s bachelor parties and wake up the next morning so hungover they have to peace back together what happened to them the night before.
When I was a kid one of the first things my father said I needed to understand about life was that governments lie. I was so young when he first told me this I could not at all understand why a government would lie nor what impact their lying would have on their own citizens and those of other countries. As my career in finance and study of economics and history deepened I realized he was right. It seems to be in the DNA of governments to lie and make promises they cannot possibly keep.
As I write the powers that be in Brussels debate Europe’s future and how Greece plays a role in it. There has never been a question in our mind as to whether or not Greece will leave the EU, it has always been a matter of when. Will that be today? We’ll soon see. Either way its time for markets to start thinking about the implications on FX rates and specifically the soon to be reintroduced EURGRD rate.