As I write the powers that be in Brussels debate Europe’s future and how Greece plays a role in it. There has never been a question in our mind as to whether or not Greece will leave the EU, it has always been a matter of when. Will that be today? We’ll soon see. Either way its time for markets to start thinking about the implications on FX rates and specifically the soon to be reintroduced EURGRD rate.
Hong Kong is an amazing place. It is a sophisticated country with well developed laws and markets that promote freedom and prosperity. It is consistently ranked as one of the easiest places in the world to do business. It is one of the most important financial centers in the world and its connection to China and proximity to other Asian nations position it well for the growing reemergence of Asia as the dominant global super power.
Bloomberg reporting today that Denmark’s largest pension fund is not at all worried about the EURDKK peg breaking. Sigh, where to begin?
So the Syriza party has won. FX markets are opening back up and as you can see the EURUSD is back under pressure to the downside.
There is nothing surprising about this election nor about the movement of the EURUSD. The Greek tragedy is far from over however. Syriza is going to negotiate hard with the ECB and the EU. I don’t see any scenario where they won’t ultimately leave the EU which would be in their best interest.
I’m sad to read today on Bloomberg about Everest Capital’s oldest hedge fund biting the dust over the moves in the EURCHF. Marko is a legend and has weathered some incredible storms out there. Everest is one of the longer running global macro shops out there and their founder was interviewed in one of my favorites books Inside the House of Money by Steven Drobny.
This market is on blast off!
If you’re not yet contacting your congressman about energy policy you are asleep at the wheel. Let me break this down. Oil is a subsidized business. Fact. OPEC is a cartel run predominantly by government owned oil companies. Fact. Oil is trading below the price of production for most countries including many that continue to pump it at a loss. Fact.